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Old 03-23-2012, 06:59 PM   #32
totemist
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanjo View Post
There is no argument just a certainty...Iran will have a nuke or two or six, by 2015, you may feel comfortable with that idea...I don't and luckily neither do the World powers.


"In September 2008, IAEA officials reported that enough enriched uranium to make six atom bombs (if processed to weapons grade level) disappeared from the main production facility at Isfahan. The officials suspect the material may have been moved to one of the installations spotted by American spy satellites, which intelligence officials believe are being used for covert research"
I seriously doubt they're talking about uranium-235 (required for a weaponisation). And even if it was they'd have to weaponise it and they simply don't have the capability yet.

ATM the worry is that these enrichment facilities are being prepped to be able to enrich large quantities of uranium and plutonium to weaponisable levels, at which point they'd be a few years off a bomb. The concern is that between now and then they'll move their facilities out of the reach of an Israeli air-strike, which is why they're so antsy - the military option is for them about to be removed from the table.

The Iranians are still a long way off a bomb, though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by the demon View Post
You're wrong, there is plenty of evidence, you just choose to call it a "conspiracy" against Iran as opposed to looking at the facts presented by the international community.
There's a fair amount of it, granted, but it's not incontrovertible, nor is it of imminent concern.

The best way for everybody to play it right now is to continue with sanctions and make it clear to the Israelis that if anybody strikes Iran it won't be them. Sooner or later, Iran will fold under the crushing sanctions and as they're nuclear program hits a wall. At this point the West trades expertise and an end to sanctions for access to its facilities and an end to enrichment.

The only difficulty is keeping the Arabs and the Israelis from getting impatient, taking matters into their own hands sparking the biggest flashpoint since the communist insurgency in South Vietnam.
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